NOVEMBER 1999
KEEPING SCORE
BARNES
PREDICTING THE OUTCOME OF FOOTBALL GAMES
BY CHARLIE BARNES
It's unlikely that your eyebrows will arch in surprise at
the discovery that Albert Einstein's brain is not like yours
and mine.
I say "is" because apparently for four-and-a-half decades
since Einstein's death, the thing has been floating around various
laboratories as an object of study. What has been discovered
is that his brain is physically different from the average, not
so much in size as in configuration. Einstein's brain has more,
well, room to maneuver, more surface space for little electrical
impulses to run and play.
Einstein was all about the Big Picture. His genius was in his
vision. He could look at the known facts, and see a world unseen
by anyone else until he revealed it.
All of this brings us roundabout to another fellow whose brain
is still in his possession. He is a lawyer by trade, and a Seminole
by his heart's blood. He does not wish me to use his name, and
I have never done so though I have enjoyed his company for at
least two of the three decades he has been an active FSU alumnus
and Booster.
He, too, has a genius for seeing things that the rest of us do
not necessarily see. He devours the minutiae of college football
in prodigious volume, then lays it out upon some sort of large-scale
mental "table," pondering it until the big picture
reveals itself to him.
As Einstein was candid about his shortcomings in mathematics,
so the Prophet harbors no illusions about his own abilities.
He does not think he can coach; he does not try to call plays.
He does not gamble.
He does not consult.
He does not give speeches.
He does not have a radio show.
He does not write a column.
But he does write to me.
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His appetite for details is voracious. I've never heard of anyone else who reads the ponderous NCAA News cover-to-cover every month. Yet he absorbs it all, and processes it through that unique brain.
In a letter dated Sept. 3, 1996, the Prophet made these predictions: "FSU will score fewer than 50 points per game in its first six games, part of a new 'friendly offense' that runs more and scores less. FSU will give up a total of fewer than 30 points in its first two games. If FSU scores more than 40 points in each of the first two games, and gives up fewer than 15 points to each, then we will go 11-0. If either Duke or N.C.State gets more than 25 points, then our final record will be 9-2."
The results? Though undefeated, FSU did not score 50 points until the 9th game of the season.
The Seminoles gave up a total of only 23 points in the first two games, while scoring 44 and 38 points respectively. As predicted, the Noles went 11-0, including a spectacular win over the Gators at season's end.
There's more. In his Sept. 3 letter, The Prophet predicted game scores for the season. Our home opener against Duke ended up 44-7. The Prophet had predicted 44-10. And his prediction of the final UF score three months hence was 30-27. The final, as you recall, was 24-21.
There was a frantic, scribbled update on Sept. 12 with short takes in many directions. "The game that truly holds the crystal ball for FSU's season is North Carolina, not Miami. The handwriting will be on the wall, good or bad, after four quarters with UNC. Winner will have less than 35 points." FSU shut out UNC 13-0.
And of the UF/Tennessee match, he wrote: "There is too much emotion for the Prophet to call the UF/UT winner. The better team appears to be Florida, but Florida is extremely overconfident, which could explode either way. The Prophet will guarantee that the winner will have at least 35 points, and the loser at least 25." Florida beat Tennessee, 35-29.
The Prophet isn't always right, and this seems to cause him no great distress, especially if his beloved Seminoles turn out to be the beneficiary. When he's right, however, he is right to the point of causing goose bumps to chase up your arms.
This is from the latest letter, dated Sept. 2:
The KEY GAME for us is Georgia Tech. Our offense will settle in, good or bad, against Tech. If we can't run the ball (pound it for first downs or to get out of the shadow of our goal line) against Tech we are in trouble. Tech will be the third or fourth best defense we play. Particularly with Weinke's lack of mobility [and possible injury] we really need a good running game. Marcus Outzen can run, but is not our best passer.
If we beat Tech by more than 21 points, and are able to rush for 200 yards, then we'll know the Louisiana Tech first half was a fluke and not a good barometer.
Georgia Tech is a good team. We will win, and we will know after we play just how great we really are." (Florida State won, 41-35).
The first version of Einstein's special theory of relativity appeared under the title, "On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies." The Prophet's genius is also expressed through predictions on the dynamics of moving bodies. Colliding bodies, to be more precise.
I'm anxious to see what's in the next envelope.